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World Ammonia Outlook to 2031

An Argus Strategy Report

The Argus World Ammonia Outlook to 2031 considers the short, medium and long term changes facing the merchant ammonia market. The changes are significant and are partly the result of the direct and indirect impact of the shale revolution in the US and the downward shift in oil pricing to $50/bl from $110/bl over the past three years.

Two years ago, the report considered the looming structural changes facing the merchant ammonia market and highlighted the potential for significant market volatility, particularly during 2017. A period of rapid change is now under way in the market, and the expected volatility has transpired in the first half of 2017.

Drawing on the Argus Ammonia Cost and Margin Service, the study:

  • analyses costs, competitiveness and the prospects for new supply or withdrawal from the market
  • provides detailed analysis of the key market participants and in particular the position of Russian producer Togliatti Azot, which is now the world’s major swing exporter of ammonia
  • gives a 15-year projection of country-by-country ammonia trade
  • assesses evolving regional balances and the consequent impact on pricing for the key fob (Yuzhny, Middle East, Caribbean) and cfr (Tampa) benchmarks


As one of our series of annual strategy reports, this document is aimed at those making long-term planning decisions, including investors.

 Download the key findings and a table of contents

View the complete list of Argus Strategy Reports

Ammonia Coverage

The Argus World Ammonia Outlook to 2031 is part of our wider ammonia coverage, which also includes:

Argus Ammonia - A market service, published weekly

Argus Monthly Ammonia Outlook - A market forecast service

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The Argus Monthly Ammonia Outlook provides readers with a forecast of key prices and physical fundamentals in the ammonia market.

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